A multivariate timeseries modeling approach to severity of illness assessment and forecasting in ICU with sparse, heterogeneous clinical data

The ability to determine patient acuity (or severity of illness) has immediate practical use for clinicians. We evaluate the use of multivariate timeseries modeling with the multi-task Gaussian process (GP) models using noisy, incomplete, sparse, heterogeneous and unevenly-sampled clinical data, including both physiological signals and clinical notes. The learned multi-task GP (MTGP) hyperparameters are then used to assess and forecast patient acuity. Experiments were conducted with two real clinical data sets acquired from ICU patients: firstly, estimating cerebrovascular pressure reactivity, an important indicator of secondary damage for traumatic brain injury patients, by learning the interactions between intracranial pressure and mean arterial blood pressure signals, and secondly, mortality prediction using clinical progress notes. In both cases, MTGPs provided improved results: an MTGP model provided better results than single-task GP models for signal interpolation and forecasting (0.91 vs 0.69 RMSE), and the use of MTGP hyperparameters obtained improved results when used as additional classification features (0.812 vs 0.788 AUC).Intel Science and Technology Center for Big DataNational Institutes of Health. (U.S.). National Library of Medicine (Biomedical Informatics Research Training Grant NIH/NLM 2T15 LM007092-22)National Institute of Biomedical Imaging and Bioengineering (U.S.) (R01 Grant EB001659)Singapore. Agency for Science, Technology and Research (Graduate Scholarship

A multivariate timeseries modeling approach to severity of illness assessment and forecasting in ICU with sparse, heterogeneous clinical data

The ability to determine patient acuity (or severity of illness) has immediate practical use for clinicians. We evaluate the use of multivariate timeseries modeling with the multi-task Gaussian process (GP) models using noisy, incomplete, sparse, heterogeneous and unevenly-sampled clinical data, including both physiological signals and clinical notes. The learned multi-task GP (MTGP) hyperparameters are then used to assess and forecast patient acuity. Experiments were conducted with two real clinical data sets acquired from ICU patients: firstly, estimating cerebrovascular pressure reactivity, an important indicator of secondary damage for traumatic brain injury patients, by learning the interactions between intracranial pressure and mean arterial blood pressure signals, and secondly, mortality prediction using clinical progress notes. In both cases, MTGPs provided improved results: an MTGP model provided better results than single-task GP models for signal interpolation and forecasting (0.91 vs 0.69 RMSE), and the use of MTGP hyperparameters obtained improved results when used as additional classification features (0.812 vs 0.788 AUC).Intel Science and Technology Center for Big DataNational Institutes of Health. (U.S.). National Library of Medicine (Biomedical Informatics Research Training Grant NIH/NLM 2T15 LM007092-22)National Institute of Biomedical Imaging and Bioengineering (U.S.) (R01 Grant EB001659)Singapore. Agency for Science, Technology and Research (Graduate Scholarship

PI in the sky: The astronaut science advisor on SLS-2

The Astronaut Science Advisor (ASA, also known as Principal-Investigator-in-a-Box) is an advanced engineering effort to apply expert systems technology to experiment monitoring and control. Its goal is to increase the scientific value of information returned from experiments on manned space missions. The first in-space test of the system will be in conjunction with Professor Larry Young's (MIT) vestibulo-ocular 'Rotating Dome' experiment on the Spacelab Life Sciences 2 mission (STS-58) in the Fall of 1993. In a cost-saving effort, off-the-shelf equipment was employed wherever possible. Several modifications were necessary in order to make the system flight-worthy. The software consists of three interlocking modules. A real-time data acquisition system digitizes and stores all experiment data and then characterizes the signals in symbolic form; a rule-based expert system uses the symbolic signal characteristics to make decisions concerning the experiment; and a highly graphic user interface requiring a minimum of user intervention presents information to the astronaut operator. Much has been learned about the design of software and user interfaces for interactive computing in space. In addition, we gained a great deal of knowledge about building relatively inexpensive hardware and software for use in space. New technologies are being assessed to make the system a much more powerful ally in future scientific research in space and on the ground

Context-sensitive autoassociative memories as expert systems in medical diagnosis

BACKGROUND: The complexity of our contemporary medical practice has impelled the development of different decision-support aids based on artificial intelligence and neural networks. Distributed associative memories are neural network models that fit perfectly well to the vision of cognition emerging from current neurosciences. METHODS: We present the context-dependent autoassociative memory model. The sets of diseases and symptoms are mapped onto a pair of basis of orthogonal vectors. A matrix memory stores the associations between the signs and symptoms, and their corresponding diseases. A minimal numerical example is presented to show how to instruct the memory and how the system works. In order to provide a quick appreciation of the validity of the model and its potential clinical relevance we implemented an application with real data. A memory was trained with published data of neonates with suspected late-onset sepsis in a neonatal intensive care unit (NICU). A set of personal clinical observations was used as a test set to evaluate the capacity of the model to discriminate between septic and non-septic neonates on the basis of clinical and laboratory findings. RESULTS: We show here that matrix memory models with associations modulated by context can perform automatic medical diagnosis. The sequential availability of new information over time makes the system progress in a narrowing process that reduces the range of diagnostic possibilities. At each step the system provides a probabilistic map of the different possible diagnoses to that moment. The system can incorporate the clinical experience, building in that way a representative database of historical data that captures geo-demographical differences between patient populations. The trained model succeeds in diagnosing late-onset sepsis within the test set of infants in the NICU: sensitivity 100%; specificity 80%; percentage of true positives 91%; percentage of true negatives 100%; accuracy (true positives plus true negatives over the totality of patients) 93,3%; and Cohen's kappa index 0,84. CONCLUSION: Context-dependent associative memories can operate as medical expert systems. The model is presented in a simple and tutorial way to encourage straightforward implementations by medical groups. An application with real data, presented as a primary evaluation of the validity and potentiality of the model in medical diagnosis, shows that the model is a highly promising alternative in the development of accuracy diagnostic tools

Thromboprophylaxis Is Associated With Reduced Post-hospitalization Venous Thromboembolic Events in Patients With Inflammatory Bowel Diseases

Background & Aims Patients with inflammatory bowel diseases (IBDs) have increased risk for venous thromboembolism (VTE); those who require hospitalization have particularly high risk. Few hospitalized patients with IBD receive thromboprophylaxis. We analyzed the frequency of VTE after IBD-related hospitalization, risk factors for post-hospitalization VTE, and the efficacy of prophylaxis in preventing post-hospitalization VTE. Methods In a retrospective study, we analyzed data from a multi-institutional cohort of patients with Crohn's disease or ulcerative colitis and at least 1 IBD-related hospitalization. Our primary outcome was a VTE event. All patients contributed person-time from the date of the index hospitalization to development of VTE, subsequent hospitalization, or end of follow-up. Our main predictor variable was pharmacologic thromboprophylaxis. Cox proportional hazard models adjusting for potential confounders were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Results From a cohort of 2788 patients with at least 1 IBD-related hospitalization, 62 patients developed VTE after discharge (2%). Incidences of VTE at 30, 60, 90, and 180 days after the index hospitalization were 3.7/1000, 4.1/1000, 5.4/1000, and 9.4/1000 person-days, respectively. Pharmacologic thromboprophylaxis during the index hospital stay was associated with a significantly lower risk of post-hospitalization VTE (HR, 0.46; 95% CI, 0.22–0.97). Increased numbers of comorbidities (HR, 1.30; 95% CI, 1.16–1.47) and need for corticosteroids before hospitalization (HR, 1.71; 95% CI, 1.02–2.87) were also independently associated with risk of VTE. Length of hospitalization or surgery during index hospitalization was not associated with post-hospitalization VTE. Conclusions Pharmacologic thromboprophylaxis during IBD-related hospitalization is associated with reduced risk of post-hospitalization VTE.National Institutes of Health (U.S.) (U54-LM008748

Machine Learning Approach for the Early Prediction of the Risk of Overweight and Obesity in Young People

Obesity is a major global concern with more than 2.1 billion people overweight or obese worldwide which amounts to almost 30% of the global population. If the current trend continues, the overweight and obese population is likely to increase to 41% by 2030. Individuals developing signs of weight gain or obesity are also at a risk of developing serious illnesses such as type 2 diabetes, respiratory problems, heart disease and stroke. Some intervention measures such as physical activity and healthy eating can be a fundamental component to maintain a healthy lifestyle. Therefore, it is absolutely essential to detect childhood obesity as early as possible. This paper utilises the vast amount of data available via UK’s millennium cohort study in order to construct a machine learning driven model to predict young people at the risk of becoming overweight or obese. The childhood BMI values from the ages 3, 5, 7 and 11 are used to predict adolescents of age 14 at the risk of becoming overweight or obese. There is an inherent imbalance in the dataset of individuals with normal BMI and the ones at risk. The results obtained are encouraging and a prediction accuracy of over 90% for the target class has been achieved. Various issues relating to data preprocessing and prediction accuracy are addressed and discussed

Psychiatric co-morbidity is associated with increased risk of surgery in Crohn's disease

Psychiatric co-morbidity, in particular major depression and anxiety, is common in patients with Crohn's disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC). Prior studies examining this may be confounded by the co-existence of functional bowel symptoms. Limited data exist examining an association between depression or anxiety and disease-specific endpoints such as bowel surgery.National Institutes of Health (U.S.) (NIH U54-LM008748)American Gastroenterological AssociationNational Institutes of Health (U.S.) (NIH K08 AR060257)Beth Isreal Deaconess Medical Center (Katherine Swan Ginsburg Fund)National Institutes of Health (U.S.) (NIH R01-AR056768)National Institutes of Health (U.S.) (NIH U01-GM092691)National Institutes of Health (U.S.) (NIH R01-AR059648)Burroughs Wellcome Fund (Career Award for Medical Scientists)National Institutes of Health (U.S.) (NIH K24 AR052403)National Institutes of Health (U.S.) (NIH P60 AR047782)National Institutes of Health (U.S.) (NIH R01 AR049880

Improving Case Definition of Crohnʼs Disease and Ulcerative Colitis in Electronic Medical Records Using Natural Language Processing

available in PMC 2014 June 01Background: Previous studies identifying patients with inflammatory bowel disease using administrative codes have yielded inconsistent results. Our objective was to develop a robust electronic medical record–based model for classification of inflammatory bowel disease leveraging the combination of codified data and information from clinical text notes using natural language processing. Methods: Using the electronic medical records of 2 large academic centers, we created data marts for Crohn’s disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC) comprising patients with ≥1 International Classification of Diseases, 9th edition, code for each disease. We used codified (i.e., International Classification of Diseases, 9th edition codes, electronic prescriptions) and narrative data from clinical notes to develop our classification model. Model development and validation was performed in a training set of 600 randomly selected patients for each disease with medical record review as the gold standard. Logistic regression with the adaptive LASSO penalty was used to select informative variables. Results: We confirmed 399 CD cases (67%) in the CD training set and 378 UC cases (63%) in the UC training set. For both, a combined model including narrative and codified data had better accuracy (area under the curve for CD 0.95; UC 0.94) than models using only disease International Classification of Diseases, 9th edition codes (area under the curve 0.89 for CD; 0.86 for UC). Addition of natural language processing narrative terms to our final model resulted in classification of 6% to 12% more subjects with the same accuracy. Conclusions: Inclusion of narrative concepts identified using natural language processing improves the accuracy of electronic medical records case definition for CD and UC while simultaneously identifying more subjects compared with models using codified data alone.National Institutes of Health (U.S.) (NIH U54-LM008748)American Gastroenterological AssociationNational Institutes of Health (U.S.) (NIH K08 AR060257)Beth Isreal Deaconess Medical Center (Katherine Swan Ginsburg Fund)National Institutes of Health (U.S.) (NIH R01-AR056768)Burroughs Wellcome Fund (Career Award for Medical Scientists)National Institutes of Health (U.S.) (NIH U01-GM092691)National Institutes of Health (U.S.) (NIH R01-AR059648

Probabilistic record linkage of de-identified research datasets with discrepancies using diagnosis codes

International audienceWe develop an algorithm for probabilistic linkage of de-identified research datasets at the patient level, when only diagnosis codes with discrepancies and no personal health identifiers such as name or date of birth are available. It relies on Bayesian modelling of binarized diagnosis codes, and provides a posterior probability of matching for each patient pair, while considering all the data at once. Both in our simulation study (using an administrative claims dataset for data generation) and in two real use-cases linking patient electronic health records from a large tertiary care network, our method exhibits good performance and compares favourably to the standard baseline Fellegi-Sunter algorithm. We propose a scalable, fast and efficient open-source implementation in the ludic R package available on CRAN, which also includes the anonymized diagnosis code data from our real use-case. This work suggests it is possible to link de-identified research databases stripped of any personal health identifiers using only diagnosis codes, provided sufficient information is shared between the data sources

Normalization of Plasma 25-Hydroxy Vitamin D Is Associated with Reduced Risk of Surgery in Crohn’s Disease

available in PMC 2014 August 01AB Background: Vitamin D may have an immunologic role in Crohn's disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC). Retrospective studies suggested a weak association between vitamin D status and disease activity but have significant limitations. Methods: Using a multi-institution inflammatory bowel disease cohort, we identified all patients with CD and UC who had at least one measured plasma 25-hydroxy vitamin D (25(OH)D). Plasma 25(OH)D was considered sufficient at levels >=30 ng/mL. Logistic regression models adjusting for potential confounders were used to identify impact of measured plasma 25(OH)D on subsequent risk of inflammatory bowel disease-related surgery or hospitalization. In a subset of patients where multiple measures of 25(OH)D were available, we examined impact of normalization of vitamin D status on study outcomes. Results: Our study included 3217 patients (55% CD; mean age, 49 yr). The median lowest plasma 25(OH)D was 26 ng/mL (interquartile range, 17-35 ng/mL). In CD, on multivariable analysis, plasma 25(OH)D =30 ng/mL. Similar estimates were also seen for UC. Furthermore, patients with CD who had initial levels <30 ng/mL but subsequently normalized their 25(OH)D had a reduced likelihood of surgery (odds ratio, 0.56; 95% confidence interval, 0.32-0.98) compared with those who remained deficient. Conclusion: Low plasma 25(OH)D is associated with increased risk of surgery and hospitalizations in both CD and UC, and normalization of 25(OH)D status is associated with a reduction in the risk of CD-related surgery. (C) Crohn's & Colitis Foundation of America, Inc